Source: First Financial Daily Author: Zhou Yong
April 21, 2011 02:58 On April 20, the international oil price and gold price both rose in the intraday trading. As of 20:42, Beijing time on April 20, the New York Mercantile Exchange's June delivery of light crude oil futures electronic price report It closed at $109.81 per barrel, up $1.53, or 1.41%.
Analysts generally believe that the adjustment of oil prices has created a negative impact on industries such as transportation, and has brought tests to the profitability of listed companies in these industries. Overall analysis of the performance of the delivery sector since April, UBS Securities Exchange Industry analyst Wei Qiang is relatively optimistic about the port, railway, highway and other industries, but more cautious attitude towards shipping and aviation.
Recently, due to factors such as high oil prices, high inflation and high-speed rail, aviation stocks have been flat in recent days. In terms of shipping, UBS Securities believes that the shipping industry is facing an oversupply situation in the second quarter, and the balance between supply and demand is relatively fragile. At present, the new capacity of dry bulk shipping is far more than demand, and this oversupply situation is expected to continue until 2012. It may have a negative impact on the relevant stocks.
For the recent trend of the high-speed rail sector, Wei Qiang said that although the Ministry of Railways recently lowered the operating speed of the passenger dedicated line, the total investment has also been lowered. However, it is expected that the investment in railway locomotives will continue to grow at a rate of more than 20% in 2011. Inter-city rail and overseas expansion are expected to continue to bring certain opportunities. In the short term, policy adjustments and higher valuations may have some suppression in the short term.
However, First Venture Securities believes that high oil prices raise cost pressures, but market performance has included the most pessimistic expectations. International fuel has been operating at a high level since 2011, but the current market valuation of the entire transportation sector has basically included the most pessimistic expectation that oil prices will continue to rise. The stabilization of oil prices will form a substantial positive.