Source: First Financial Daily Author: Zhou Yong
April 21, 2011 02:58 On April 20, the international oil price and gold price both rose in the intraday trading. As of 20:42, Beijing time on April 20, the New York Mercantile Exchange's June delivery of light crude oil futures electronic price report It closed at $109.81 per barrel, up $1.53, or 1.41%.
Analysts generally believe that the adjustment of oil prices has created a negative impact on industries such as transportation, and has brought tests to the profitability of listed companies in these industries. Overall analysis of the performance of the delivery sector since April, UBS Securities Exchange Industry analyst Wei Qiang is relatively optimistic about the port, railway, highway and other industries, but more cautious attitude towards shipping and aviation.
Recently, due to factors such as high oil prices, high inflation and high-speed rail, aviation stocks have been flat in recent days. In terms of shipping, UBS Securities believes that the shipping industry is facing an oversupply situation in the second quarter, and the balance between supply and demand is relatively fragile. At present, the new capacity of dry bulk shipping is far more than demand, and this oversupply situation is expected to continue until 2012. It may have a negative impact on the relevant stocks.
For the recent trend of the high-speed rail sector, Wei Qiang said that although the Ministry of Railways recently lowered the operating speed of the passenger dedicated line, the total investment has also been lowered. However, it is expected that the investment in railway locomotives will continue to grow at a rate of more than 20% in 2011. Inter-city rail and overseas expansion are expected to continue to bring certain opportunities. In the short term, policy adjustments and higher valuations may have some suppression in the short term.
However, First Venture Securities believes that high oil prices raise cost pressures, but market performance has included the most pessimistic expectations. International fuel has been operating at a high level since 2011, but the current market valuation of the entire transportation sector has basically included the most pessimistic expectation that oil prices will continue to rise. The stabilization of oil prices will form a substantial positive.
After hitting a record high in January, the processing volume of Chinese refineries decreased for the third consecutive month in April, but the strong demand for refined oil still supported the refinery operating rate, offsetting the impact of the peak period. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Friday, China's crude oil processing volume in April was 36.96 million tons, a decrease of 0.3% from the same period last year. According to Dow Jones Newswires, average daily crude oil processing in April was 9.03 million barrels of oil equivalent, down from 9.07 million barrels in March. JPMorgan analysts said that although both the chain and the same year-on-year decline, due to strong domestic demand and more refineries put into operation, China's crude oil processing capacity is expected to be supported; the overall daily processing capacity in 2012 will be Increased by about 900,000 barrels. Huang Wensheng, a spokesperson for China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, said that in order to ensure the supply of domestic refined oil, Sinopec has been operating at full capacity since last year. Despite extensive equipment overhauls, state-owned refineries have maintained high gasoline and diesel production. The company's 70,000 barrels per day of the Luzhou refinery's gasoline production in the first four months of this year increased, while the company's daily processing capacity of 160,000 barrels of Hainan refinery's steam and diesel production both rose.
Since the publication of the "Opinions of the State Council on Promoting Mergers and Acquisitions of Enterprises", the progress of mergers and acquisitions of enterprises has not been obvious. In order to further strengthen this work, the Industrial Policy Division of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently held a 2012 national industrial policy work symposium, proposing that effective measures must be taken to highlight key points and promote overall, and strive to make mergers and acquisitions of major industries such as ships Substantial progress. On April 28th, the Division issued the "Notice on Further Strengthening the Merger and Reorganization of Enterprises" and proposed measures to strengthen mergers and acquisitions. The "Notice" requires all local industrial and information authorities to establish and improve the organization and coordination mechanism for mergers and acquisitions, to coordinate and coordinate mergers and acquisitions; to create a good environment for mergers and acquisitions, to guide and encourage enterprises to voluntarily and independently carry out mergers and acquisitions; Solve the problems encountered by enterprises in the region in mergers and acquisitions; do a good job in the guidance and service of mergers and acquisitions; establish a system of mergers and acquisitions of enterprises, and all local industrial and information authorities must submit the mergers of enterprises in the region to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in a timely manner. The important situations that arise in the reorganization and the problems that need to be resolved by the relevant state departments, the quarterly mergers and acquisitions and the progress of the cases, as well as the progress of the annual mergers and acquisitions, the results achieved, effective practices, existing problems and related recommendations. The relevant person in charge of the China Shipbuilding Industry Association said that during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the shipbuilding industry will enter a critical stage of the transition from large to strong. China's shipbuilding industry is not strong in innovation, structural contradictions are prominent, industrial concentration is low, and overcapacity is serious. Most of the enterprises' production capacity is concentrated on ship products with low technical content, and the proportion of high-tech ships and offshore engineering equipment Smaller, specialized division of labor is not obvious. In the case of the world's ship market downturn, many companies' new orders are much lower than the shipbuilding completions in the same period, and the market situation is very serious. Promoting mergers and acquisitions of enterprises is an important measure to adjust the industrial structure, transform the development mode, and enhance the industrial competitiveness. It is also an important part of promoting industrial transformation and upgrading. Therefore, it is necessary to vigorously promote the merger and reorganization of the shipbuilding industry. It is understood that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will study and formulate guiding opinions for promoting mergers and acquisitions of key industries, and clarify the basic requirements, main objectives, key tasks and policy measures for mergers and acquisitions of key industries; with automobiles, steel, cement, ships, electrolytic aluminum, rare earths, The pharmaceutical, food and other industries will focus on promoting advantageous enterprises to implement strong alliances, cross-regional mergers and acquisitions, overseas mergers and acquisitions and investment cooperation, increase industrial concentration, and promote large-scale and intensive operations.
Bulk chemicals in the most recent week, the rankings: bulk chemicals this week, the top 5 gain: titanium concentrate, phosphate rock, EDC, liquefied gas, bisphenol A. Bulk chemicals fell by 5 before this week: urea, BDO, acetic acid, methyl ethyl ketone, nitric acid. Petrochemical and futures prices: Brent crude oil price changes -0.81% to 108.11 US dollars / barrel; butadiene and propylene prices change 16.22%, -4.64% to 2150 US dollars / ton, 9250 yuan / ton; NYMEX natural gas, PVC, PTA And the price of natural rubber changed -5.24%, 0.00%, 1.26%, 4.63% to 3.457 US dollars / mmbtu, 6,600 yuan / ton, 8550 yuan / ton, 27,000 yuan / ton. Inorganic chemical and organic raw materials: light and heavy soda ash change 0.00%, -5.33% to 1675, 1775 yuan / ton; caustic soda price stable at 880 yuan / ton; calcium carbide change 3.26% to 3800 yuan / ton; original salt price stable at 360 Yuan/ton; BDO price stabilized at 19,000 yuan/ton; acetic acid and acetic anhydride changed -7.09%, -2.78% to 2950, 5250 yuan/ton; aniline price stabilized at 9,850 yuan/ton. Fine chemicals: soft and hard foam polyether changes -1.42%, -1.49% to 13,900 yuan / ton, 13,200 yuan / ton; TDI changes 0.57% to 17,550 yuan / ton; pure, polymeric MDI changes -2.33%, 2.19% to 16800, 14000 yuan / ton; adipic acid change -1.36% to 10850 yuan / ton; propylene oxide and ethylene oxide change -0.40%, 0.00% to 12350, 10900 yuan / ton; carbon black change -2.56% to 7600 yuan / ton; PA6, PA66 prices are stable at 30,000, 30,200 yuan / ton. Chemical fertilizers and pesticides: Potassium chloride and potassium sulfate prices are stable at 3350, 3750 yuan / ton; yellow phosphorus is 0.89% to 16950 yuan / ton; melamine price is stable at 8500 yuan / ton; domestic and international sulfur changes 0.00%, 1.18% to 1740 yuan / ton, 213.5 US dollars / ton; domestic and international urea changes 1.49%, -12.88% to 2050 yuan / ton, 355 US dollars / ton; domestic and international diammonium phosphate changes 0.00%, 1.27% to 3350 yuan / ton, 597.5 US dollars / ton; domestic and international phosphate ore changes 0.00%, 9.88% to 500 yuan / ton, 222.5 US dollars / ton; ammonium nitrate price stable at 2675 yuan / ton. Plastic products and fluorine chemical: cis-butyl rubber changed by 1.98% to 25,700 yuan / ton; price of anatase and rutile titanium dioxide stabilized at 16,200, 18,800 yuan / ton; PVA changed by 0.61% to 16,400 yuan / ton; R22 and R134a changed - 3.57 %, 0.00% to 13500, 35,000 yuan / ton; aluminum fluoride and cryolite prices are stable at 9,850 yuan / ton, 8,400 yuan / ton. Chemical fiber: caprolactam change -4.39% to 21800 yuan / ton; cotton change 0.27% to 19057 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber, filament change 1.94%, 0.00% to 15800, 44900 yuan / ton; polyester staple yarn, FDY change 4.17%, 5.10% to 11250, 13400 yuan / ton; nylon DTY, slice change -1.60%, -4.12% to 30800, 23300 yuan / ton; spandex 40D change -1.15%.